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Monday, October 12, 2015
The Utley-ctric Slide
To recap what happened Saturday night, here's a GIF of what happened:
Chase Ultey was on first base. A ball was hit up the middle, 2nd baseman Daniel Murphy of the Mets fielded the ball, and flipped it to Short Stop Ruben Tejada, as you can see in the GIF Image. This has be a hot, or can I say, "Utley-ctrifying" topic recently among many baseball analysts and fans of the game. There have been defenses of how the slide was wrong and also how it's apart of the game.
After the slide occurred, SS Ruben Tejada left the game with an apparent leg injury. Later, it was reported he fractured his fibula, and would be out for the rest of the postseason.
Major League Baseball went ahead an took action. It was announced yesterday Chase Utley would be suspended the next 2 games of the postseason because of his slide. The slide was ruled as an "illegal slide" to MLB.
My Problem With the Situation
Double plays between the middle infielders happens multiple times a game. A very common play. Breaking up the double play by the base-runners is a part of the game. However, it is being stretched out too far. Middle infielders get out of the way to avoid the slide coming for them. Base-runners follow the middle infielders wherever the end up just to break up the double play. Saturday's incident was an example of that. Tejada was attempting to move out of the way. Utley, not aiming his slide towards the bag, collided into the young SS, who was moving out of the way from the base to make the double play, trying to avoid the slide.
If there was anything that needed to be reviewed, it was the ruling. Chase Utley should not have been allowed to go back to 2nd base. According to Joe Torre,
"Rule 5.09 (a) (13) is the rule which is designed to protect fielders from precisely this type of rolling block that occurs away from the base."
The reason he was allowed to come back to second was not because of the illegal slide, but because the Dodgers wanted a review to see if Tejada touched the bag, in which he did not. The inning kept going, in which the Dodgers scored 3 runs after that play, breaking the tie and wound up winning.
My solution would be to do a better job enforcing the rules on slides into a base. There have been many slides into 2nd base that were similar to Utley's slide, and there was no big deal made out of it. I believe Major League Baseball will either create a modification to the rule, or do a better job in enforcing the rule Torre stated. Something will happen.
Chase Ultey was on first base. A ball was hit up the middle, 2nd baseman Daniel Murphy of the Mets fielded the ball, and flipped it to Short Stop Ruben Tejada, as you can see in the GIF Image. This has be a hot, or can I say, "Utley-ctrifying" topic recently among many baseball analysts and fans of the game. There have been defenses of how the slide was wrong and also how it's apart of the game.
After the slide occurred, SS Ruben Tejada left the game with an apparent leg injury. Later, it was reported he fractured his fibula, and would be out for the rest of the postseason.
Major League Baseball went ahead an took action. It was announced yesterday Chase Utley would be suspended the next 2 games of the postseason because of his slide. The slide was ruled as an "illegal slide" to MLB.
My Problem With the Situation
- If it was ruled an illegal slide by MLB, why was Utley not called out for an illegal slide?
- Rules on sliding- Enforced better
Double plays between the middle infielders happens multiple times a game. A very common play. Breaking up the double play by the base-runners is a part of the game. However, it is being stretched out too far. Middle infielders get out of the way to avoid the slide coming for them. Base-runners follow the middle infielders wherever the end up just to break up the double play. Saturday's incident was an example of that. Tejada was attempting to move out of the way. Utley, not aiming his slide towards the bag, collided into the young SS, who was moving out of the way from the base to make the double play, trying to avoid the slide.
If there was anything that needed to be reviewed, it was the ruling. Chase Utley should not have been allowed to go back to 2nd base. According to Joe Torre,
"Rule 5.09 (a) (13) is the rule which is designed to protect fielders from precisely this type of rolling block that occurs away from the base."
The reason he was allowed to come back to second was not because of the illegal slide, but because the Dodgers wanted a review to see if Tejada touched the bag, in which he did not. The inning kept going, in which the Dodgers scored 3 runs after that play, breaking the tie and wound up winning.
My solution would be to do a better job enforcing the rules on slides into a base. There have been many slides into 2nd base that were similar to Utley's slide, and there was no big deal made out of it. I believe Major League Baseball will either create a modification to the rule, or do a better job in enforcing the rule Torre stated. Something will happen.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Texas Rangers: My Pick for the World Series
October Baseball is Here for the 2015 Season, Finally!
What an amazing and exciting Major League Baseball regular season it has been for 2015.
Teams who have had trouble winning games in the past, emerged to be the most dominant teams in the league, making them eligible for postseason play:
- Blue Jays (22 years ago), Rangers (3rd worst record in MLB last season), Astros (since going to the WS in 2005), Mets (2006), and Cubs (2008).
Some players had breakout seasons, were rookies coming into the league, or had remarkable come back seasons to help their ball club reach October:
- Jake Arrieta, Kris Bryant, Alex Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Correa, Josh Donaldson, Randal Grichuk, Gerit Cole, to name a few.
The CY Young race for the National League maybe closer than it has ever been for the award. Three pitchers each have put up stats for the record books in their own way
-Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw, and Zach Grienke.
Of the top 3 teams in the MLB with the best records, the 2nd and 3rd place team will have to play each other in the National League Wild Card game. Lose that game, and you go home.
-Cubs (97-65) @ Pirates (98-64)
There is literally no telling which two teams will play in this year's World Series, in my opinion at least. It's easy to say Toronto because on paper, they are probably the best team, not to mention the largest bandwagon heading into the 2015 postseason, or a team out of the NL Central because those teams own the best regular season records. I mean who knows, maybe the popular opinion will be the most accurate. But honestly, who saw the Astros, Mets, Cubs, and Rangers all make the postseason coming? Because of these new teams making the playoffs, popular opinion will not be the most accurate. In depth thinking, researching statistical scenarios, or simply guessing will be the ultimate way in choosing who will be playing in the World Series. Or at least, is what I did.
Here's who I've got:
My illustration is courtesy of Microsoft OneNote.
Why the Texas Rangers?
The Rangers are one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs. There are some of the same players from their postseason runs from 2010 and 2011 that are still on the team and know how to get it done when it comes to playing in October.
-Mitch Moreland- great turn around season: 23 HRs, 85 RBIs, hitting just under .280
-Colby Lewis- 17 game winner this season; 4-1, 2.34 ERA in 8 postseason starts
-Derek Holland- 3-0 in postseason
-Adrian Beltre- future HOF'er; 18 HRs, 83 RBIs, .287 batting average this season
-Elvis Andrus- .273 postseason batting average
Oh yeah, and these guys:
-Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton. Alongside Beltre and Moreland, these two were the meat of the team offensively that went to the 2011 World Series.
Now I know this is not indeed 2011, but players that have played well in the postseason before, tend to be consistent at it.
Mike Napoli's Postseason Stats:
47 Games Played, 7 HRs, 26 RBIs, .254 AVG, .352 OBP, and 1 SB
Josh Hamilton's Postseason Stats:
37 Games Played, 6 HRs, 23 RBIs, and the 2010 ALCS MVP Award
Their last two times in the postseason, however, were not so hot. They are back with Texas though, history repeats itself, and I believe the theory will be relevant to this postseason.
Other notable players with postseason experience on Texas:
-Cole Hamels- won 2008 WS MVP with Philadelphia
-Prince Fielder- 39 games played in postseason
-Yovani Gallardo- 2.08 ERA, 20 SO in 26 IP
The Texas Rangers are built for the playoffs, especially entering as one of the hottest teams. However, they are playing a team just as hot in the Toronto Blue Jays. I see this series going all 5 games. The winner of this series will go to the World Series. These are the top two teams in the American League entering the playoffs. I do not see Kansas City better than these two teams. The starting pitching does not compare. Kansas City is coming into the post season losing 17 of their last 30. However, their last 5 games, they won 5 in a row. Despite their success last season in the playoffs, I don't see it happening this postseason.
Source for information: Baseball Reference
Monday, October 5, 2015
Wild, Wild Card Games - AL
American League Wild Card Game
Astros vs Yankees
The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros tomorrow night in the American League Wild Card 1 game playoff.
Houston has not been to the postseason since they went to the World Series in 2005, when they were in the National League and lost to the Chicago White Sox. They, as well as a couple of other teams in this crazy 2015 MLB season, were a surprise to many. Houston was not expected to play as well as they did. Here's how good some of their players were:
Sort-able Stats for Houston Astros
As for the Yankees,
The Yankees were also not projected to do too well this year. Everyone was doubting how their pitching staff would perform and claiming their players were too old and had peaked out. Here's how they did:
Sort-able Stats for New York Yankees
How These Teams Finished
Houston led the division most of the season- then became cold in the final month. In the month of September, the 'stros went 11-16, losing sole possession of 1st place in the AL West to the Texas Rangers. However, they ended the season nicely, winning 6 of their last 8 games.
The Yankees have a similar story. New York had a strong lead in the AL East the majority of the year. After Toronto made a couple of blockbuster trades at the conclusion of July and made it "hot up in the 6ix, boy," they took control of the division leading into August and maintained the lead until they captured the division crown. They ended the regular season poorly, winning 2 of their last 8 games.
The Pitching Match-Up
Houston will send AL Cy Young Candidate Dallas Keuchel to the mound.
New York will start their ace as well, Masahiro Tanaka
As dominant as Keuchel has been, his stats from pitching at home vs pitching away are pretty drastic:
15-0, 1.46 ERA, .186/.232/.242 opponents' slash at home vs a 5-8 record, 3.77 ERA and .253/.297/.401 opponents' slash on the road (per Sports On Earth). However, Keuchel has defeated the Yankees twice this year. One win was home, and the other was on the road. His win at Yankee Stadium included 7 shut-out innings, no walks, and striking out 9.
Tanaka has faced Houston once this year. He got a No Decision (ND), pitching 5 innings and giving up 6 earned runs. 7 of his 12 wins were from home games. Offense is a strength to the Yankees, giving Tanaka almost 6 runs per start (5.84 Runs Support per 9 innings, 0.02 better than Keuchel's).
Prediction
Despite the poor numbers on the road Dallas Keuchel has put up this season and the lack of postseason experience, I believe he and the Astros win the Wild Card game over the Yankees. Both teams are capable of scoring a lot of runs. The Yankees were 2nd in the American League in RBIs and Runs, and Houston was 2nd in the American League in HRs. However, I think this will be a low scoring game.
Houston 4
New York 2
WP: Keuchel (1-0) 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
LP: Tanaka (0-1) 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Rasmus: (HOU) 2-4, HR, 2 RBIs
Headley: (NYY) 1-4 HR, RBI
Keuchel Picture I Used
Astros vs Yankees
The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros tomorrow night in the American League Wild Card 1 game playoff.
Houston has not been to the postseason since they went to the World Series in 2005, when they were in the National League and lost to the Chicago White Sox. They, as well as a couple of other teams in this crazy 2015 MLB season, were a surprise to many. Houston was not expected to play as well as they did. Here's how good some of their players were:
- 3 starters finished the regular season with an ERA under 3.40
- Keuchel (2.28), McCullers (3.22), and Fiers (3.32)
- One of those three, along with another starter, combined to win 39 games together
- Keuchel (20-8) and McHugh (19-7)
- 5 Astros hit over 20 home runs
- Gattis 27, Rasmus and Valbuena 25, Carter 24, and Correa with 22
- Evan Gattis lead team with 88 RBIs (15th in AL)
- Jose Altuve was the only Astro to hit over .300 (.313; 10th in MLB)
Sort-able Stats for Houston Astros
As for the Yankees,
The Yankees were also not projected to do too well this year. Everyone was doubting how their pitching staff would perform and claiming their players were too old and had peaked out. Here's how they did:
- 3 starters finished the season with 12 or more wins
- All three of these starters had ERA's over a 3.50
- Reliance on run support
- Set-up man and closer combo was consistent and strong throughout season
- Dellin "Dealin" Betances, the set-up man, had some impressive stats
- ERA of 1.50, struck out 131 batters in 84 innings pitched (IP), and had opponents hitting a .157 against him
- Andrew Miller, the closer, also had some rather stellar stats
- 36 Saves, ERA of 2.04, struck out 100 in 61.2 IP, and had hitters hitting a .151 batting average when facing him
- 5 Yankees had +15 HRs and +65 RBIs seasons
- -All 31 years or older: Brian McCann, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and Brett Gardner
- No one hit over .300 (Minimum of 150 ABs)
- -Closest was JR Murphy with a .279 BA
Sort-able Stats for New York Yankees
How These Teams Finished
Houston led the division most of the season- then became cold in the final month. In the month of September, the 'stros went 11-16, losing sole possession of 1st place in the AL West to the Texas Rangers. However, they ended the season nicely, winning 6 of their last 8 games.
The Yankees have a similar story. New York had a strong lead in the AL East the majority of the year. After Toronto made a couple of blockbuster trades at the conclusion of July and made it "hot up in the 6ix, boy," they took control of the division leading into August and maintained the lead until they captured the division crown. They ended the regular season poorly, winning 2 of their last 8 games.
The Pitching Match-Up
Houston will send AL Cy Young Candidate Dallas Keuchel to the mound.
New York will start their ace as well, Masahiro Tanaka
As dominant as Keuchel has been, his stats from pitching at home vs pitching away are pretty drastic:
15-0, 1.46 ERA, .186/.232/.242 opponents' slash at home vs a 5-8 record, 3.77 ERA and .253/.297/.401 opponents' slash on the road (per Sports On Earth). However, Keuchel has defeated the Yankees twice this year. One win was home, and the other was on the road. His win at Yankee Stadium included 7 shut-out innings, no walks, and striking out 9.
Tanaka has faced Houston once this year. He got a No Decision (ND), pitching 5 innings and giving up 6 earned runs. 7 of his 12 wins were from home games. Offense is a strength to the Yankees, giving Tanaka almost 6 runs per start (5.84 Runs Support per 9 innings, 0.02 better than Keuchel's).
Prediction
Despite the poor numbers on the road Dallas Keuchel has put up this season and the lack of postseason experience, I believe he and the Astros win the Wild Card game over the Yankees. Both teams are capable of scoring a lot of runs. The Yankees were 2nd in the American League in RBIs and Runs, and Houston was 2nd in the American League in HRs. However, I think this will be a low scoring game.
Houston 4
New York 2
WP: Keuchel (1-0) 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
LP: Tanaka (0-1) 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Rasmus: (HOU) 2-4, HR, 2 RBIs
Headley: (NYY) 1-4 HR, RBI
Keuchel Picture I Used
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