Wild, Wild Card Games - AL

American League Wild Card Game

Astros vs Yankees

The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros tomorrow night in the American League Wild Card 1 game playoff.

Houston has not been to the postseason since they went to the World Series in 2005, when they were in the National League and lost to the Chicago White Sox. They, as well as a couple of other teams in this crazy 2015 MLB season, were a surprise to many. Houston was not expected to play as well as they did. Here's how good some of their players were:

• 3 starters finished the regular season with an ERA under 3.40
• Keuchel (2.28), McCullers (3.22), and Fiers (3.32)
• One of those three, along with another starter, combined to win 39 games together
• Keuchel (20-8) and McHugh (19-7)
• 5 Astros hit over 20 home runs
• Gattis 27, Rasmus and Valbuena 25, Carter 24, and Correa with 22
• Evan Gattis lead team with 88 RBIs (15th in AL)
• Jose Altuve was the only Astro to hit over .300 (.313; 10th in MLB)

Sort-able Stats for Houston Astros

As for the Yankees,
The Yankees were also not projected to do too well this year. Everyone was doubting how their pitching staff would perform and claiming their players were too old and had peaked out. Here's how they did:

• 3 starters finished the season with 12 or more wins
• All three of these starters had ERA's over a 3.50
• Reliance on run support
• Set-up man and closer combo was consistent and strong throughout season
• Dellin "Dealin" Betances, the set-up man, had some impressive stats
• ERA of 1.50, struck out 131 batters in 84 innings pitched (IP), and had opponents hitting a .157 against him
• Andrew Miller, the closer, also had some rather stellar stats
• 36 Saves, ERA of 2.04, struck out 100 in 61.2 IP, and had hitters hitting a .151 batting average when facing him
• 5 Yankees had +15 HRs and +65 RBIs seasons
• -All 31 years or older: Brian McCann, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and Brett Gardner
• No one hit over .300 (Minimum of 150 ABs)
• -Closest was JR Murphy with a .279 BA 

Sort-able Stats for New York Yankees

How These Teams Finished

Houston led the division most of the season- then became cold in the final month. In the month of September, the 'stros went 11-16, losing sole possession of 1st place in the AL West to the Texas Rangers. However, they ended the season nicely, winning 6 of their last 8 games.

The Yankees have a similar story. New York had a strong lead in the AL East the majority of the year. After Toronto made a couple of blockbuster trades at the conclusion of July and made it "hot up in the 6ix, boy," they took control of the division leading into August and maintained the lead until they captured the division crown. They ended the regular season poorly, winning 2 of their last 8 games.

The Pitching Match-Up

Houston will send AL Cy Young Candidate Dallas Keuchel to the mound.
New York will start their ace as well, Masahiro Tanaka

As dominant as Keuchel has been, his stats from pitching at home vs pitching away are pretty drastic:
15-0, 1.46 ERA, .186/.232/.242 opponents' slash at home vs a 5-8 record, 3.77 ERA and .253/.297/.401 opponents' slash on the road (per Sports On Earth). However, Keuchel has defeated the Yankees twice this year. One win was home, and the other was on the road. His win at Yankee Stadium included 7 shut-out innings, no walks, and striking out 9. 
Tanaka has faced Houston once this year. He got a No Decision (ND), pitching 5 innings and giving up 6 earned runs. 7 of his 12 wins were from home games. Offense is a strength to the Yankees, giving Tanaka almost 6 runs per start (5.84 Runs Support per 9 innings, 0.02 better than Keuchel's). 

Prediction

Despite the poor numbers on the road Dallas Keuchel has put up this season and the lack of postseason experience, I believe he and the Astros win the Wild Card game over the Yankees. Both teams are capable of scoring a lot of runs. The Yankees were 2nd in the American League in RBIs and Runs, and Houston was 2nd in the American League in HRs. However, I think this will be a low scoring game.

Houston 4
New York 2
WP: Keuchel (1-0) 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
LP: Tanaka (0-1) 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Rasmus: (HOU) 2-4, HR, 2 RBIs
Headley: (NYY) 1-4 HR, RBI

Keuchel Picture I Used