Monday, October 12, 2015

The Utley-ctric Slide

To recap what happened Saturday night, here's a GIF of what happened:















Chase Ultey was on first base. A ball was hit up the middle, 2nd baseman Daniel Murphy of the Mets fielded the ball, and flipped it to Short Stop Ruben Tejada, as you can see in the GIF Image. This has be a hot, or can I say, "Utley-ctrifying" topic recently among many baseball analysts and fans of the game. There have been defenses of how the slide was wrong and also how it's apart of the game.

After the slide occurred, SS Ruben Tejada left the game with an apparent leg injury. Later, it was reported he fractured his fibula, and would be out for the rest of the postseason. 

Major League Baseball went ahead an took action. It was announced yesterday Chase Utley would be suspended the next 2 games of the postseason because of his slide. The slide was ruled as an "illegal slide" to MLB. 

My Problem With the Situation

  • If it was ruled an illegal slide by MLB, why was Utley not called out for an illegal slide? 
  • Rules on sliding- Enforced better 


Double plays between the middle infielders happens multiple times a game. A very common play. Breaking up the double play by the base-runners is a part of the game. However, it is being stretched out too far. Middle infielders get out of the way to avoid the slide coming for them. Base-runners follow the middle infielders wherever the end up just to break up the double play. Saturday's incident was an example of that. Tejada was attempting to move out of the way. Utley, not aiming his slide towards the bag, collided into the young SS, who was moving out of the way from the base to make the double play, trying to avoid the slide. 

If there was anything that needed to be reviewed, it was the ruling. Chase Utley should not have been allowed to go back to 2nd base. According to Joe Torre

"Rule 5.09 (a) (13) is the rule which is designed to protect fielders from precisely this type of rolling block that occurs away from the base." 

The reason he was allowed to come back to second was not because of the illegal slide, but because the Dodgers wanted a review to see if Tejada touched the bag, in which he did not. The inning kept going, in which the Dodgers scored 3 runs after that play, breaking the tie and wound up winning. 

My solution would be to do a better job enforcing the rules on slides into a base. There have been many slides into 2nd base that were similar to Utley's slide, and there was no big deal made out of it. I believe Major League Baseball will either create a modification to the rule, or do a better job in enforcing the rule Torre stated. Something will happen.  


Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Texas Rangers: My Pick for the World Series

October Baseball is Here for the 2015 Season, Finally!

What an amazing and exciting Major League Baseball regular season it has been for 2015. 

Teams who have had trouble winning games in the past, emerged to be the most dominant teams in the league, making them eligible for postseason play: 
- Blue Jays (22 years ago), Rangers (3rd worst record in MLB last season), Astros (since going to the WS in 2005), Mets (2006), and Cubs (2008). 

Some players had breakout seasons, were rookies coming into the league, or had remarkable come back seasons to help their ball club reach October:
- Jake Arrieta, Kris Bryant, Alex Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Correa, Josh Donaldson, Randal Grichuk, Gerit Cole, to name a few.

The CY Young race for the National League maybe closer than it has ever been for the award. Three pitchers each have put up stats for the record books in their own way
-Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw, and Zach Grienke.

Of the top 3 teams in the MLB with the best records, the 2nd and 3rd place team will have to play each other in the National League Wild Card game. Lose that game, and you go home.
-Cubs (97-65) @ Pirates (98-64)

There is literally no telling which two teams will play in this year's World Series, in my opinion at least. It's easy to say Toronto because on paper, they are probably the best team, not to mention the largest bandwagon heading into the 2015 postseason, or a team out of the NL Central because those teams own the best regular season records. I mean who knows, maybe the popular opinion will be the most accurate. But honestly, who saw the Astros, Mets, Cubs, and Rangers all make the postseason coming? Because of these new teams making the playoffs, popular opinion will not be the most accurate. In depth thinking, researching statistical scenarios, or simply guessing will be the ultimate way in choosing who will be playing in the World Series. Or at least, is what I did.

Here's who I've got:



































My illustration is courtesy of Microsoft OneNote. 

Why the Texas Rangers?
The Rangers are one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs. There are some of the same players from their postseason runs from 2010 and 2011 that are still on the team and know how to get it done when it comes to playing in October. 
-Mitch Moreland- great turn around season: 23 HRs, 85 RBIs, hitting just under .280
-Colby Lewis- 17 game winner this season; 4-1, 2.34 ERA in 8 postseason starts
-Derek Holland- 3-0 in postseason
-Adrian Beltre- future HOF'er; 18 HRs, 83 RBIs, .287 batting average this season
-Elvis Andrus- .273 postseason batting average

Oh yeah, and these guys:
-Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton. Alongside Beltre and Moreland, these two were the meat of the team offensively that went to the 2011 World Series. 

Now I know this is not indeed 2011, but players that have played well in the postseason before, tend to be consistent at it. 

Mike Napoli's Postseason Stats: 
47 Games Played, 7 HRs, 26 RBIs, .254 AVG, .352 OBP, and 1 SB

Josh Hamilton's Postseason Stats:
37 Games Played, 6 HRs, 23 RBIs, and the 2010 ALCS MVP Award

Their last two times in the postseason, however, were not so hot. They are back with Texas though, history repeats itself, and I believe the theory will be relevant to this postseason. 

Other notable players with postseason experience on Texas:
-Cole Hamels- won 2008 WS MVP with Philadelphia
-Prince Fielder- 39 games played in postseason
-Yovani Gallardo- 2.08 ERA, 20 SO in 26 IP 

The Texas Rangers are built for the playoffs, especially entering as one of the hottest teams. However, they are playing a team just as hot in the Toronto Blue Jays. I see this series going all 5 games. The winner of this series will go to the World Series. These are the top two teams in the American League entering the playoffs. I do not see Kansas City better than these two teams. The starting pitching does not compare. Kansas City is coming into the post season losing 17 of their last 30. However, their last 5 games, they won 5 in a row. Despite their success last season in the playoffs, I don't see it happening this postseason. 

Source for information: Baseball Reference

Monday, October 5, 2015

Wild, Wild Card Games - AL

American League Wild Card Game

Astros vs Yankees


The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros tomorrow night in the American League Wild Card 1 game playoff.

Houston has not been to the postseason since they went to the World Series in 2005, when they were in the National League and lost to the Chicago White Sox. They, as well as a couple of other teams in this crazy 2015 MLB season, were a surprise to many. Houston was not expected to play as well as they did. Here's how good some of their players were:


  • 3 starters finished the regular season with an ERA under 3.40
    • Keuchel (2.28), McCullers (3.22), and Fiers (3.32)
  • One of those three, along with another starter, combined to win 39 games together
    • Keuchel (20-8) and McHugh (19-7)
  • 5 Astros hit over 20 home runs
    • Gattis 27, Rasmus and Valbuena 25, Carter 24, and Correa with 22
  • Evan Gattis lead team with 88 RBIs (15th in AL)
  • Jose Altuve was the only Astro to hit over .300 (.313; 10th in MLB)


Sort-able Stats for Houston Astros

As for the Yankees,
The Yankees were also not projected to do too well this year. Everyone was doubting how their pitching staff would perform and claiming their players were too old and had peaked out. Here's how they did:

  • 3 starters finished the season with 12 or more wins
  • All three of these starters had ERA's over a 3.50
    • Reliance on run support
  • Set-up man and closer combo was consistent and strong throughout season
    • Dellin "Dealin" Betances, the set-up man, had some impressive stats
      • ERA of 1.50, struck out 131 batters in 84 innings pitched (IP), and had opponents hitting a .157 against him
    • Andrew Miller, the closer, also had some rather stellar stats
      • 36 Saves, ERA of 2.04, struck out 100 in 61.2 IP, and had hitters hitting a .151 batting average when facing him
  • 5 Yankees had +15 HRs and +65 RBIs seasons
  • -All 31 years or older: Brian McCann, A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and Brett Gardner
  • No one hit over .300 (Minimum of 150 ABs)
  • -Closest was JR Murphy with a .279 BA 


Sort-able Stats for New York Yankees

How These Teams Finished

Houston led the division most of the season- then became cold in the final month. In the month of September, the 'stros went 11-16, losing sole possession of 1st place in the AL West to the Texas Rangers. However, they ended the season nicely, winning 6 of their last 8 games.


The Yankees have a similar story. New York had a strong lead in the AL East the majority of the year. After Toronto made a couple of blockbuster trades at the conclusion of July and made it "hot up in the 6ix, boy," they took control of the division leading into August and maintained the lead until they captured the division crown. They ended the regular season poorly, winning 2 of their last 8 games.

The Pitching Match-Up

Houston will send AL Cy Young Candidate Dallas Keuchel to the mound.

New York will start their ace as well, Masahiro Tanaka

As dominant as Keuchel has been, his stats from pitching at home vs pitching away are pretty drastic:
15-0, 1.46 ERA, .186/.232/.242 opponents' slash at home vs5-8 record, 3.77 ERA and .253/.297/.401 opponents' slash on the road (per Sports On Earth). However, Keuchel has defeated the Yankees twice this year. One win was home, and the other was on the road. His win at Yankee Stadium included 7 shut-out innings, no walks, and striking out 9. 
Tanaka has faced Houston once this year. He got a No Decision (ND), pitching 5 innings and giving up 6 earned runs. 7 of his 12 wins were from home games. Offense is a strength to the Yankees, giving Tanaka almost 6 runs per start (5.84 Runs Support per 9 innings, 0.02 better than Keuchel's). 

Prediction


Despite the poor numbers on the road Dallas Keuchel has put up this season and the lack of postseason experience, I believe he and the Astros win the Wild Card game over the Yankees. Both teams are capable of scoring a lot of runs. The Yankees were 2nd in the American League in RBIs and Runs, and Houston was 2nd in the American League in HRs. However, I think this will be a low scoring game.


Houston 4

New York 2
WP: Keuchel (1-0) 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
LP: Tanaka (0-1) 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Rasmus: (HOU) 2-4, HR, 2 RBIs
Headley: (NYY) 1-4 HR, RBI



















Keuchel Picture I Used 

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Update on Playoff Races

American League Playoff Race

It has been 16 days since my post on my playoff picture prediction. Let's see how I'm doing:


Changes since Sept 1st
  • Texas has swapped spots with Houston and has taken control of the AL West by a game and a half
  • Cleveland, Baltimore, and Seattle have all passed Tampa Bay in the race for the 2nd Wild Card spot
  • Toronto has maintained the lead of the AL East over New York
How I Predicted the Season Would End
  • Toronto wins East, KC wins Central, Houston wins West
  • New York and Cleveland win the 1st and 2nd Wild Card spots
So far, I am correct with the AL East and Central division leaders, and also the 1st Wild Card spot. Although I am not correct in my prediction for the AL West leader and 2nd Wild Card spot, there are still plenty of games left in the season.
"Cleveland’s second-half ERA of 3.73 is the third-best in the American League, and the Indians are 23-13 since Aug. 7." - Buster Onley
Cleveland is my bold pick to win the 2nd Wild Card spot. The Indians were 10 games under .500 and 3rd to last in the AL on August 7th. They were counted out of contention. Now they are 3rd in the race for the 2nd Wild Card spot with a .500 record (entering tonight). They need to keep playing strong, taking game by day and winning series if they want to stay alive and move up in the race. So basically Indians, keep playing good baseball. The Tribe have made an intriguing case of showing life and being a true darkhorse in race for an AL Wild Card spot.

Houston, we have a problem! The 'stros are on a 4 game losing streak, are 2-8 in their last 10 games, and lost their lead in the AL West. I hate to see this team not win the division. From usual last to first. However, the Rangers have caught fire. Texas has great potential to finish the regular season out hot. Coming off a sweep against the Astros, they now play Seattle, then Oakland, Houston again, Detroit, then the Los Angeles Angels. It will be key for Houston to fix their problem and capitalize in their final match-up against Texas, which is a 3 game series they are hosting. 


The National League Playoff Race

The National League race is pretty much figured out. 

  • Mets up by 8 games over Nats
  • Cardinals up by 5 games over Pirates
  • Dodgers lead Giants by 7.5 games
  • Pirates have 1st Wild Card spot & Cubs have 2nd Wild Card spot
    • PIT 2 games up on Cubs for 1st Wild Card
I predicted the Giants to make a run at the NL West division lead, but they hit a cold spell a couple of days after my post, and are seemingly out of contention. I did not jinx them, it was a total coincidence. 



Tuesday, September 15, 2015

The Race No One is Talking About

Big Race for Last Place

The race to make the Wild Card spots for the American League has been a hot topic for the last month or so. Other races for playoff spots that aren't as hot and almost figured out include the AL East division race between the Blue Jays and Yankees (Blue Jays up by 1.5 games), the AL West division race with Houston up on Texas by 2 games, and the NL Central division crown, which St. Louis has by 4.5 games over Pittsburgh. However, there is another race that is being overlooked. It is the big race for last place!

There are 7 teams that are very well in contention to finish with the worst record overall in the 2015 Major League Baseball season. These five teams are:

30.) Philadelphia Phillies (56-89), currently last,
29.) Atlanta Braves (56-88), second to last by a half a game,
28.) Colorado Rockies (60-84),
27.) Cincinnati Reds (60-83),
26.) Miami Marlins (61-83),
25.) Oakland Athletics (61-83), and
24.) Milwaukee Brewers (62-81)

The race was a lot closer a couple of weeks ago, when the last four teams were all around a game or two back from each other. However, these teams are still within reach of each other to finish last. Atlanta has 2 wins alone in the month of September, TWO WINS! They have plummeted straight to the bottom with Philadelphia. With the way they have been playing, I can see them winning the crown for last place. And by crown, I mean dunce hat (That much for a dunce hat? Wow!).  However, anything can happen. Teams in the bottom of the league sometimes heat up in the final games of the season.

The Team That Will Heat Up and the Team That Will Be Last

The team that will heat up and avoid the dunce hat for last place and finish with the best record out of the 7 teams will be the Cincinnati Reds. Coming off a series win of 3 games to 1 against the best team in baseball is pretty solid for a team contending for last place. To finish out their season, they will face the Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, the red hot New York Mets, 1 make-up game vs the Nats, the Cubs, then finish it off with the Pirates. I see them winning at least 11 of their final 19 games.

Your last place team in the 2015 Major League Baseball season will be the Philadelphia Phillies. It was a tough choice between Philadelphia and Atlanta, because both teams have been cold as of late. For the majority of the season Philadelphia has been in last place. At one time Miami took control of last, but that was only for a brief stint. Philadelphia does not have many players for the future, and need to rebuild ASAP. Trading away Cole Hamels was a good start. There are some highly rated prospects in their farm system that will probably be with them next season or the season after. With the GM being relieved of his duties, I'm sure Philadelphia will bring in a guy who will make better choices with signing players to better contracts that the ones the former GM made.


Maybe next season they will avoid the "dunce crown for last", or perhaps they get hot and avoid it for this season. It will be interesting to see which team does finish with the worst record in this crazy 2015 MLB season.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Calling the Shots

Orioles Rally to Route Royals Thanks to Psychic Orioles Fan

The Orioles defeated the Royals by a final score of 14-8 on Friday night. Kansas City lead the majority of the game. In the bottom of the 8th, the O's began to start a rally, a rally no one could have predicted to occur. Really, no one? Not one person could have predicted the out come, or predict it by tweeting it perhaps, before it actually happened? There was one person who did just that. Pitt Community College Freshman and die-hard Baltimore Orioles fan Sam Lee predicted two game changing events that took place in Friday evening's ball game, that were "long shots" (literally). 

The Orioles had the bases loaded with one out. Kansas City's Kelvin Herrera was pitching to Nolan Reimold, the next batter for the Orioles. Lee, who does not have Directv which carries MASN, the Orioles TV provider, was following the game via Twitter. Suddenlink was a better deal financially to fit the college student and his roomate's budget rather than having Directv. Roch Kubatko, a writer/reporter for the Orioles thru MASN, had tweeted the Orioles had loaded the bases for Nolan Reimold with one out in the bottom of the 8th. Lee, who is an avid autograph collector, received Nolan Reimold's autograph in 2006 when Reimold played for the Fredrick Keys, a minor league team for the Baltimore Orioles. He has been a huge Reimold fan and supporter since that day he received Reimold's signature. 

The college student had a strong feeling the Orioles were going to win on this night, and tweeted Nolan Reimold would hit a Grand Slam Home-Run in his at-bat. A couple seconds later, he read Kubatko's next tweet:

Kubatko was the first to report the Grand Slam through Twitter. If you notice to times between my tweet and Kubatko's tweet, you can see my tweet was tweeted one minute before his, thus a true correct, bold, and "grand" prediction. 

The Orioles were not done. They lead 8-6 after Reimold raked in 4 runs. Two more runs scored to make it a 10-6 ball game. Lee continued to follow this intriguing through Twitter.  Kubatko tweeted the O's had the bases loaded once again, and this time Steve Clevenger was up. The die-hard Orioles fan Sam had already called one grand slam, so why not call another? 

After reloading his timeline a couple of times, a tweet appeared from Roch about what transpired when Clevenger was at the plate:
Sam Lee could not believe what he read. He was in complete shock! Yet again he calls, and the Orioles answer. Clevenger hit a Grand Slam, one minute after he had tweeted that Clevenger would. What a night for the Baltimore Orioles, their fans, and especially this one. If this was a title to an episode of "Friends" it would be "The One With the Grand Calls". Goodnight America.










Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Into the Final Month We Go!

Playoff Races

Here we are, the month of September! The final full month of the regular season for Major League Baseball. The race for the Wild Card in the American League is still up for grabs for many teams including the Twins, Angels, Rays, Indians, Orioles, and even the White Sox. The National League Wild Card has been locked down for a while now between the Pirates and Cubs. The Giants are 5.5 games back, and may could make a second Wild Card berth, but have a better shot at winning the division than for that to happen. Other than the NL West, it's clear to see who will take the division in each division.

-The Yankees are well in reach of the Blue Jays for the division, and have to play them 7 more times before the season is over.

-Texas sits 4 games back of the first place Houston Astros in the AL West, and they meet up 7 more times as well.

-The best team in baseball, the St. Louis Cardinals shouldn't feel too comfortable in the final month of regular season play. Pittsburgh is only 5 games back. The two teams meet up a total of 6 more times before it is all said and done.

-Last but not least, the NL West. As I said earlier, the Dodgers have the lead in the division. The Giants, who are in second, only trail by 4.5 games. San Francisco has created a dynasty of players and a winning reputation for the past 5 years, winning 3 World Series in that span. This is an organization that knows how to not only play in October, but to win as well. Los Angeles plays San Francisco 6 more times before the season ends. Will the Giants add to their excellence of post season play by beating out the Dodgers in the division?

Prediction Time

 In the American League, there are a possible 44 different combinations American League teams to make the 1st and 2nd Wild Card spot. I did not calculate this in order of 1st and 2nd Wild Card spots, however. These teams include the division leaders Blue Jays and Astros because there is a possibility of then teams in second to take the division from them, making them Wild Card eligible. Other teams included are the Wild Card leaders, the Yankees and Rangers, and the teams that follow them down to the White Sox, who sit 6.5 games back.

AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central: Detr- Ha, just kidding! Kansas City Royals
AL West: Houston Astros
1st AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
2nd AL Wild Card: Cleveland Indians

I have predicted the Cleveland Indians to win the 2nd Wild Card Spot in the American League. Cleveland has been down most of the season, but has shown signs of late life after the All-Star break. Corey Kluber has been pitching lights out after the break. The other pitchers of the Indians pitching staff have been stellar as well. Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, and Salazar are all ranked in the top 10 most strikeouts in the American League. This team has also entered the month of September winning 8 of their last 10 games. Francisco Lindor has been hitting the ball well over his last 15 games, along with Lonnie Chisenhall,  Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis, all hitting over .300. This team has some weapons offensively and pitching wise. They are one of the hottest teams going into the final games of the regular season, and that is why I pick them to capture the second Wild Card spot.

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: San Francisco Giants
1st NL Wild Card: Pittsburgh Pirates
2nd NL Wild Card: Chicago Cubs

San Francisco to me is a sneaky team. They have players they are sneaky and streaky, and find a way to win games with those players. These players include Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy, Joe Panik, and Kelby Tomlinson. Crawford doesn't really fit the sneaky category before since he was an All Star this year, but he has been kind of cold after the All Star Break. He is a player than can be streaky, and since people haven't been thinking too much of him since he's gotten cold, he could sneak up and get hot, thus making him sneaky and streaky. I like the players the Giants added over the Trade and Waiver Deadline more than I like the players who the Dodgers added. Marlon Byrd and Mike Leake were great fits for the Giants. Chase Utley was a good fit for the Dodgers, but I don't think Mat Latos and Alex Wood will continue pan out as the season concludes. Also, Joc Pederson has been struggling majorly after the All Star Break, and he was a big part to the Dodgers success in the 1st half. Yasiel Puig has had a down year. Justin Turner, who's been fantastic this year for LA, has not hit the ball exceptionally well lately, hitting under .200 his last 15 games. Plus the Giants schedule for September includes playing teams such as the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Padres (2 series each), Reds, and Athletics (1 series each), all teams that are below .500. They do play the Dodgers 6 more times however. Los Angeles plays some of the same teams, but not all. They play the Pirates and Angels, teams that are above .500. It will be interesting to see who will take this division. I picked the Dodgers to win it all in my predictions I made in March, and I may regret this decision by not sticking with them.



Thursday, August 20, 2015

Play Hard for the Wild Card

AL Wild Card

It's mid-August. There are eight potential teams that are still in play for two Wild Card spots. The two teams who currently are in the Wild Card spots are the Blue Jays and the Angels. Teams that trail the Angels and Blue Jays include the Orioles, Rangers, Twins, Rays, and if you count the Tigers and White Sox still being in contention (I do).



















Breaking it Down
The Orioles and Blue Jays are hot right now. Baltimore is coming off a sweep of the Athletics and Toronto has won eight of their last ten games. I expect Toronto to win more games as the season is declining, earning the first Wild Card spot. The Orioles, however, have played inconsistent all year, will they stay hot or will they fall back into their inconsistency of winning and losing ball games. In their next eight series, they play teams over .500, except for Tampa Bay, who is not too far off a .500 winning percentage.
The Angels have one of the worst records since the All-Star break, and has lost their lead in their division. This team has been playing good all year, and I expect them to be able to come out of their cold spell and start winning more ball games. Will they be able to, however? The Texas Rangers have had injuries to the starting pitching (once again this season), but acquired Cole Hamels at the trade deadline to help not only this season, but for next season, making their pitching rotation dominant granted if everyone stays healthy.
The Twins and Rays are similar teams to me. Both have similar records, are young teams, and have surprised people. These teams still have a shot at making the playoffs, and veteran leadership to help push the young guys to do so. Evan Longoria of the Rays and Joe Mauer of the Twins both have postseason experience, and knows what it takes to get to the post season. Both teams were hot in the beginning months of the regular season, but have cooled down and have stayed cool since.
I still believe the Tigers and the White Sox can get hot and make a run, but will they? The two teams certainly have the players to do so. The Sox struggles are staying consistent in their offense. Detroit's weakest link is their bullpen, which has blown countless games this season. These teams better amend these struggles quick if they want a chance to play in October.